I’m jumping on the bandwagon and, for the first time, posting my virtualization/cloud predictions for the new year:
Increasing gravitation toward two primary Cloud stacks:
While Microsoft, OpenStack and CloudStack will all continue to gain customers, it will be VMware's vCloud Suite vs. Cisco's IAC + Cloupia (now CUIC: Cisco Unified Infrastructure Controller) as the two dominant platform choices for private clouds. VMware will leverage its virtualization dominance to remain the leader in private cloud, though lack of clear messaging around the delineation between use cases for vCD and vCAC (formerly DynamicOps) combined with Cisco’s strong converged infrastructure story will help Cisco’s solution grow more quickly.
VDI deployments will escalate: The continued increasing density advantages resulting from Moore’s Law combined with storage innovations such as converged infrastructure, flash and software-based accelerators will reduce the CapEx cost of virtual desktops to a tipping point where 2013 finally becomes the Year of VDI. A harbinger: Presidio just received word today that we won the Atlanta Public Schools VDI RFP which includes 24,000 zero clients and 8,000 concurrent virtual desktop users.
Virtual desktops will be integrated into private clouds: Today, like their physical counterparts, virtual desktops are typically treated as organizational silos. But expect one or more solutions that enable self-service provisioning and chargeback capabilities for virtual desktops.
The Multi-Hypervisor fad will lose luster: The use of multiple hypervisors itself will continue to slowly increase, but the hype as a cost-savings strategy will die off. Organizations will increasingly realize that other than in certain technology silos, the management and disaster recovery cost of maintaining multiple hypervisors far outweighs any perceived licensing cost advantages.
ROI/TCO cloud calculators will emerge: Financial tools and standardized metrics will emerge to help organizations make economic comparisons between virtualized environments and private clouds, and between private clouds and various public cloud alternatives.
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